Trading psikologi merupakan aspek terpenting dari kesuksesan trader. Kita telah membuat kenyataan ini dahulu, tetapi perlu mengulanginya. Ada banyak faktor yang menyumbang terhadap psikologi seorang trader, dan tidak ada cara yang mudah untuk mencapai pola fikir trader. Namun, ada beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi psikologi trader yang penting dan perlu diperhatikan. Sebelum ini kita telah membincangkan sebuah ciri yang merangkumi bagaimana seorang trader perlu berhadapan dengan drawdown (Trading Psikologi-Berhadapan dengan Drawdown). Topik sebelum ini membincangkan implikasi psikologi disebabkan oleh kehilangan straight siri perdagangan. Topik hari ini, menerima risiko, berkaitan dengan individual trades.
Best trader biasanya adalah trader yang paling konsisten. Untuk menjadi trader yang konsisten, penting untuk secara konsisten mengaplikasikan satu metodologi ke atas market dan membuat kesalahan sedikit mungkin. Kesalahan dalam trading adalah ketika seorang trader menyeleweng daripada metodologi mereka. Kesalahan umum termasuk mengambil kerugian yang lebih besar dari yang dirancang, keluar dari trade lebih awal daripada yang dirancang, membuka trade yang tidak sesuai dengan kriteria biasa trader, atau melepaskan trade yang sesuai dengan kriteria trader. Kesalahan ini boleh merosakkan modal trader dan kewarasan mereka.
Kesalahan dalam trading biasanya disebabkan oleh emosi dari trading sebelumnya. Emosional yang paling berbahaya (menurut saya) berlaku ketika seorang trader kehilangan sebuah perdagangan yang mereka rasakan itu adalah sepatutnya win trade. Setelah kehilangan trade ini, seorang trader merasa sedih, marah, atau bahkan dendam terhadap market. Hal ini menyebabkan trader masuk trade dengan tidak rasional untuk memenangi kembali apa yang mereka telah hilangkan. Tentu saja, trade ini juga biasanya diakhiri dengan loser. Jika menang, hal ini menjadi lebih buruk lagi, kerana sikap ini mendorong keputusan yg sama di masa depan, dan boleh menyebabkan kerugian yang lebih besar.
Menurut pendapat saya, alasan senario tersebut adalah umum di kalangan trader ialah mereka tidak dapat menerima risiko ketika mereka menempatkan perdagangan. Mereka menharapkan sebuah perdagangan yang pasti akan menang, jadi ia menjadi sengsara jika perdagangan itu sebuah kerugian. Bahkan, peniaga mungkin menolak untuk menerima kerugian mereka kerana mereka begitu yakin itu adalah win trade, yang boleh mengakibatkan kerugian yang menghancurkan. Inilah sebabnya trader harus menerima risiko dari setiap perdagangan sebelum mereka memasuki posisi mereka. Dengan kata lain, seorang peniaga harus melihat jumlah wang yang mereka risk kan sebagai kos untuk melihat apakah idea perniagaan mereka akan bekerja. Sekali seorang trader menerima risiko, mereka biasanya akan merasa tidak tertekan walaupun perdagangan itu bukan perdagangan yang menang.
Menerima risiko dari setiap perdagangan tidak mudah, terutamanya bagi trader yang tidak berpengalaman. Sudah tentu, ada beberapa langkah yang boleh kita ambil untuk membuatnya lebih mudah menerima risiko. Pertama, sangat penting untuk merancang setiap perdagangan. Ini bererti kita harus tahu di mana kita akan memasuki perdagangan, tempat kita berhenti/SL, dan tempat kita menempatkan TP. Dengan cara itu tidak ada keputusan yang perlu dibuat selepas posisi sudah dimasukkan. Otak manusia akan melihat maklumat yang berbeza apabila perdagangan dimasukkan dan berfikir jauh lebih jelas sebelum perdagangan dimasukkan. Selain itu, jika kita mengetahui jarak antara entry dan SL, kita dapat mengetahui secara persis berapa banyak modal kita yang dirisikokan. Hal ini penting kerana tidaklah mungkin untuk kita menerima risiko ketika kita tidak tahu berapa besar risikonya. Setelah memasukkan rencana pra-perdagangan, emosi tidak boleh dielakkan, tapi setidaknya ia tidak akan mempengaruhi keputusan perdagangan.
Seperti yang kita katakan sebelum ini, seorang trader harus melihat jumlah wang yang mereka risikokan sebagai kos untuk melihat apakah idea perniagaan mereka akan bekerja. Setiap trader pasti mempunyai kerugian. Namun, peniaga konsisten melihat kerugian sebagai sebahagian kos perniagaan. Kerugian adalah aspek penting perdagangan, dan tidak ada cara untuk mengetahui yang mana perdagangan akan menang atau perdagangan yang mana akan kalah ketika perdagangan dimasukkan. Oleh kerana itu, jika kita boleh menerima risiko dari setiap perdagangan sebelum menempatkannya, kerugian ini dapat lebih mudah dilihat sebagai sebahagian daripada perdagangan berbanding serangan peribadi terhadap market. Sekali seorang pedagang belajar untuk menerima risiko pada setiap perdagangan dan mengakui mereka tidak tahu yang mana satu perdagangan akan menang, mereka akan lebih mudah untuk mengendalikan emosi dan mencapai keputusan yang konsisten.
Psikologi dalam trading merupakan aspek terpenting untuk kesuksesan trader. Hal ini mungkin mengejutkan beberapa pembaca, khususnya mereka yang baru dalam trading. Namun, faktor psikologi trader lebih penting daripada pengetahuan market, analisis pasaran, bahkan money management. Alasan mengapa psikologi begitu penting adalah walaupun informasi terbaik diperolehi ia boleh diselewengkan oleh poor mindset atas dorongan faktor psikologi.
Kebanyakan trader baru berfikir kunci untuk profit dalam trading adalah mengetahui lebih banyak tentang market. Sebagai contoh, sebahagian besar trader baru menggunakan pelbagai indikator yang mereka temukan, membaca GDP tren, dan merasa bahawa pro trader memiliki pengetahuan yang special. Namun, ini tidak menjamin memberikan keputusan yang diharapkan oleh novice trader untuk berjaya.
Setelah menyedari bahawa mengakses informasi market yang berlebihan tidak membantu (dan mungkin mengelirukan) keputusan, saat berikutnya ialah trader ini akan melihat sudut money management. Tidak kira trading dengan sekecil 1 lot setiap kali, atau semaksimum lot yang dibenarkan dari akaun, trader ini menyedari kerugian tetap terjadi tidak kira apapun. Ketika mereka menyedari bahawa setiap orang pasti mengalami lose, mereka akan melihat mengapa money management diperlukan. Ini adalah langkah besar, tetapi tetap tidak menjamin kesuksesan.
Jangan salah faham, anda juga perlu memiliki suatu bentuk analisis dan bentuk money management untuk profit dalam jangka panjang. Dengan kata lain, anda memerlukan satu kelebihan yang bila diterapkan bersama dengan proper money management untuk menjamin kepada positif return dalam banyak trade. Great money management tanpa kelebihan itu hanya akan bererti anda kehilangan wang dengan kadar yang lambat. Great strategi tanpa money management akan menyebabkan akaun akan mudah blow up. Namun, tanpa proper mindset, ia mustahil untuk terus mendapatkan keputusan yang baik dalam jangka masa yang panjang.
The bottom line adalah poor mindset boleh memberi sabotaj walaupun kita mempunyai best trading strategi atau money management strategi. Kita melihat salah satu contoh. Ujian terbesar dalam psikologi trading berlaku semasa drawdown. Hal ini terjadi ketika seorang trader tidak dapat perform dan mendapat bad result dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Biasanya keadaan bertambah buruk jika drawdown menghilangkan sejumlah besar keuntungan yang diperolehi sebelumnya.
Perlu diketahui, drawdown adalah sesuatu yang normal. Setiap trader melalui keadaan itu. Namun, kuncinya adalah bertindak dengan proper terhadap drawdown itu. Inilah sebabnya mengapa psikologi dalam trading begitu penting. Reaksi natural kita semasa drawdown adalah kita mudah menukar strategi yang ditetapkan. Kadang-kadang trader akan masuk trade tanpa alasan yang munasabah kerana mengejar peluang profit dalam keadaan desperate. Dengan beranggapan anda percaya bahawa metodologi anda adalah key, tidak ada alasan untuk anda mengubah apa pun walaupun semasa drawdown. Bahkan, ia adalah masa yang penting untuk mengikut basic. Atas beberapa alasan trader cenderung panik dalam situasi ini dan mengubah segalanya. Ini menyebabkan kepada drawdown yang lebih besar, yang biasanya hanya berakhir jika trader beralih kembali kepada strategi asal mereka.
Simple Math untuk Recover dari DrawDown...
Loss 10% - % Profit untuk Recover - 11%
Loss 30% - % Profit untuk Recover - 40%
Loss 50% - % Profit untuk Recover - 100%
Loss 80% - % Profit untuk Recover - 400%
Loss 100 % - 
by Sam Evans
Trading discipline is simply a hard skill to master. With dreams of making big money in the fastest possible time, the vast majority of novice and beginner traders typically learn this lesson the hard way. Being disciplined and patient is pretty much the last thing on the rookie trader's mind in the early stages of their career. They want to make money and get results quickly after seeing and hearing how the professionals do it and aspiring to reach these upper echelons in the shortest possible time. As a full-time trader myself, I completely understand this scenario all too well, from my own personal experiences and also from teaching around 500 students through Online Trading Academy. I had to learn to control my money and my emotions the hard way and I now take pleasure in teaching students of the market around the world how to avoid the mistakes I made in the early days.
In one of my recent Extended Learning Track (XLT) sessions, I was sharing with the class some ideas on how they could learn to keep things under control when they are trading. They asked me how I learn to be disciplined in my trading and I said that after putting together a solid trading plan, learning to control loss and then applying consistency, really all it comes down to is keeping myself in check and to be honest, I used to find this difficult at times! I am only human after all with the same emotions as everyone else. I told them how I went to get some help from a coaching friend of mine and how his suggestions enhanced my trading considerably. It should be noted that he is not a trader. His area of expertice is in streamlining and increasing an individual's performance in their subject field, and this is what I especially liked about working with him.
You see I already understood the importance of risk management, was working from a trade plan and had trained myself to look for the best low risk, high probability trades, but something was missing. I didn't want to be advised by another trader as I was happy with my trading skills. In essence, it was me who was making errors in how I managed myself and maintained my discipline, so the work required needed to shift to my persona and attitude before I could witness any further breakthroughs. My coach suggested I carry out a simple exercise in my daily trading routine and made me implement it and follow-through with it for a couple of weeks. For the focus of this article, I would like to share with you the same powerful exercise, what my XLT students have named as "Mental Push-Ups."
In the nature of keeping things simple, I would say that this exercise in generating trading discipline focuses on two main areas. First, it is about controlling loss and being patient with waiting for entries and taking trades. Secondly, it is designed to maximize profits from the market and create a powerful overall risk to reward ratio in a trader's overall trading performance. Note the word control being used here. A consistent trader needs this in their makeup to even have a genuine shot at being successful. Even after quality education and mentorship, the novice trader needs to not only understand this dynamic, but to have actually experienced taking control and being disciplined at the same time. I have found with students I have worked with that after getting to grips with market direction and the use of stop losses, they still tend to suffer from a combination of over-trading, chasing the market when they are wrong or missed an entry and finally, not letting the profits run enough. This practical exercise can help to correct these fatal flaws in the psyche of the novice trader.
First, you need to define clearly your daily or weekly loss limit on the trading account. This could vary between 1 to 3% of your equity, depending on the style of trading and personal preferences. Let's, for example purposes, say we are going to have a maximum daily loss limit of $100. Now that this has been decided, the key is to not lose more than this – if you do, you have to quit for the day. Of course, you could wait patiently for a trade and it stops you out, but you still have to quit for the day. Close down the PC, shut the door to the office and walk away, even if that trade lasted mere minutes or seconds. It does not matter, you walk away. This is true discipline and any experienced trader reading this article right now will know just how hard it is to stop trading for the day after a single loss, but remember this is an exercise in control, nothing more nothing less. It is a rule which aims to prevent the trader from chasing back a losing trade, which typically leads to poor and emotional trading decisions and big losses for the day, when this could have been avoided by ceasing trading at the first loss. The object is to lose small and stay away from the market when you are wrong.
The second part of the exercise is quite simple. If that first trade is a winning trade, you have to carry on trading for the day. Now of course I am not suggesting jumping into new trades recklessly and playing up the winnings irresponsibly, but rather to carry on when you are doing well. Many market newbies pat themselves on the back when they make money and set daily profit targets. When they hit these targets, they stop trading, comfortable in the knowledge of their profits sitting there in the account. However, when they do this for a few days running and one day lose a trade, they get angry and take another to win back the lost money. When this course of action results in a further loss, what do they do? They trade again and the losses begin to mount up, eventually eating into the previous day's profits...sound familiar? So, instead of stopping when we are winning and carrying on trading when losing, I want you to flip this the other way around. Carry on when you are winning and stop when you lose. You should give yourself some guidelines for this as well.
I decided to carry on trading if my first trade was a winner, but I was only allowed to take two more trades in total, giving me a max potential of three winners for the day. This meant that at worst case, I could have one loser for the day, but at best three winners (please make sure that you are using at least a 3:1 reward to risk ratio to make this effective), meaning that I would be consistently looking to maintain higher average winners to average losers. But yes, there is one more tiny detail...if you win the first trade and take a second, you are still only allowed to risk your daily loss limit, which in this case is $100. Again, the aim is to maximize returns so that if you win first and lose the second, you will still be up for the day and protected for the next day, too. If you do lose the 2nd trade, a third is not allowed – you have to stop. Remember, you carry on when winning, but quit when you lose, making sure all along that you make the very most of the winners and cut the losers off sharply.
This was a simple exercise given to me by a great coach and I can honestly say, it turned out to be the psychological kick in the rear end I so needed! I learned the power of control, managing risk at all times and allowing my profits to run. I carried out the exercise for a month and it was hard at first, especially when I placed a loser and had to stop for the rest of the day. But in time I saw how my profits and performance increased to the plus side in a very short amount of time, all as a result of control and discipline. And I was spending less time at the computer screen, too, which is always a good thing. I hope it does the same for you. Finally, I would like to thank my good friend and mentor Guy Jacobs for his support along the journey
by Richard Olsen
The biggest danger for any trader is excessive exposure. An unexpected price spike can then trigger a margin call that wipes out all the profits generated over months of hard effort. This is the most frequent reason why traders lose money. How can we prevent this from happening? What do we have to know?
Diversification
As there is no such thing as perfect foresight and an unexpected price spike can occur at any time, a trader should always diversify his risk and trade not just one, but two or three ideas at the same time. It is through diversification that he can improve his risk profile – when one trading idea is in the profit, the other runs a loss and vice versa. Overall his performance is smoother and more importantly, this approach reduces the pressure to perform. The trader is then more relaxed and less emotional in managing the exposure of his trades.
How To Realize Profits?
Whatever the underlying trading ideas are, the method for converting an idea into a realized profit is always quite similar. First, the trader should define a budget in terms of assets that he intends to commit to the trading idea. It is best to divide the budget into targeted position size and additional capacity that he intends to use in case that the market turns against him. I advise that the targeted position size should be only one third of the overall budget of the trading idea – a large two thirds are additional capacity that is kept in reserve. When he opens his position based on his trading idea, he should split the initial trade into three tranches, because there is no way to know the optimal timing for an opening a trade, so it is better to diversify this risk into three opening trades.
How To Manage A Trade?
In the blog on why butterflies cause cascading margin calls I explained that a trader needs to be on the continuous lookout for unforeseen events that can trigger a cascade of margin calls. When this happens, any trade can turn into a losing position, where the entry price is so far from the current price level that the profit target is out of reach.
Improving Price Average To Turn Losing Position Into A Profit
A losing position can be turned into a winning trade by turning the negative development into a positive and take advantage of the new price level to add to the existing position thus improving the price average of the whole position. In doing so, the trader shortens the distance between price average and current price thus increasing the likelihood of a price bounce that is sufficiently large to turn his position into a profit.
Why Are Price Rebounds Bound To Occur?
In liquid financial markets up to 98% of all the trading is based on speculative positions and the hedging of those positions. These positions being speculative are temporary and any opening trade will need to be closed. When the closing trade happens, this has the effect of inducing a price reversal. Due to the duality of the opening and closing trade the price movements are never fully one sided. At some stage, sooner or later, positions will be closed and then the price rebounds occur.
A trader can use these reversals to turn a losing trade into a winning position. The method of increasing the position size to turn a losing trade into a winning position has, however, big drawbacks, which the trader has to be fully aware off.
Smoke And Mirrors
Human beings do not find it easy to correctly identify price extremes. They typically interpret relatively small price moves as extremes, where in actual effect the moves are only moderately larger than average. This deficiency is even more pronounced when a trader faces mounting losses. When under pressure, the trader’s internal clock ticks faster and he poles the market price at a higher frequency. Time will seem to flow more slowly, minutes will feel like hours and days like weeks. Under these circumstances, the trader’s natural instinct is to time his trades in terms of his internal clock, but this is wrong. Unaware he will focus on smaller-scale price movements that are out of step with his overall trading strategy. He will decide to increase his bet too early. There might be a bounce back, but this will not be enough for him to exit his position with a profit. If the price resumes its slide, the trader will accumulate losses even faster than before because of the larger position.
A trader needs to take into account that his sense of timing is skewed when under pressure: he needs to lean back and slow his natural instinct and wait for a price overshoot that is in sync with his regular trading frequency. Patience is of essence.
Reducing Position Size
If a trader has increased his position size to improve the average price of his position, he has to reduce the size of his position at the next opportunity, when the price rebounds. This is important because he has to free up margin capital, so that he can increase his position, when the price falls back again. By carefully managing the position size during the ups and downs in the price, he earns incremental profit that turns a losing position into a winning trade.
Trader Deep Freeze
The biggest danger for a trader is the so-called ‘deep freeze’ mode: a trader, who is close to a margin call, freezes up and does not have the mental energy to take decisions and blindly hopes for a price rebound. He can be lucky once, twice or three times, but not on an ongoing basis. Similar to a mouse that is hunted by a cat and cannot move for fright, the same happens to the trader. It is important to preempt this situation. The trader has to set himself a stop loss, where he will get out of his position, whatever may happen. Ideally, the stop loss is never triggered and he is able to maneuver out of any unrealized loss by increasing and decreasing his position size in response to the local highs and lows of the market. In case he fails, he has to have a stop loss strategy in place that limits his overall risk. It is all too easy to close one’s eyes and hope for the best
Guest post from Jason Madison
1. Develop a trading plan and stick to it.
Trading is just like any other business if you don’t have plan of action you are destined to fail. A trading plan is a necessity because without one you are just gambling. A good trading plan will have defined rules that tell you: when to take a trade, how much to risk, and when to exit a trade. It is important that you develop a trading plan and adhere to its rules if you hope to be a successful trader.
2. Learn To Accept Losses.
Losing is a part of trading and you will never escape it. As human beings we seek perfection we want to believe that if we can just find the right method we can trade the markets flawlessly and never take a loss. Unfortunately that is not the case as even the best traders in the world take losses it’s a part of the game. The key however is to not fear these losses but to simply expect them to occur and to manage your risk accordingly
3. Use Proper Money Management.
The key to lasting in the world of forex trading is to control your risk. You have resist the temptation trade to maximize gains and to instead trade to minimize loss. You have to treat your capital as you would a loved one. You wouldn’t risk a family member’s life would you? So don’t risk your capital unnecessarily because your capital is the life line of your trading career. Keep your maximum risk to between 2-3% per trade and you will ensure that even if you suffer a string of losses you will live to trade another day
4. Don’t Be Greedy
When you open a trade and the market does exactly what you thought it would do you are going to be tempted to hold on to the trade because you figure its going to keep moving in the same direction making you more money. This however could backfire as the market could quickly reverse and wipe away all your gains. To avoid this you need to take profit once the market has given you a certain amount of profit. This amount should be defined in your trading plan and should be strictly adhered to.
Forex Trading may seem like an impossible thing to learn but with these tips you will be well on your way to a successful forex trading career.
Do you want to take your trading to new heights? Do you want to become one of the 5% of traders that actually make it in this business? Do you want to discover the revolutionary price action techniques that will allow you to trade for a living?
1 Introduction
In this article we cover the few important rules that should never be broken in trading. If you can apply these rules consistently, and with discipline, you will be well on the way to being a profitable trader.
The rules we cover are:
o Have specific goals and objectives
o Be consistent and disciplined
o Let profits run
o Cut losses short
o Never add to a losing trade
o Don't take too much risk
o Only trade positive expectancy systems
o Minimize all trading business costs
o Be well educated
o Don't trade scared money
2 The Golden Rules of Trading
The following sections outline a set of rules that can significantly improve your chances of success if they are understood, practiced, and implemented consistently in your trading. These rules have been learned the hard way, by study, research, trial-and-error, and the inevitable mistakes that everyone makes when they start a trading business.
We hope that you can learn from the work we have done, and benefit from our experience. The rules will now be discussed.
2.1 Have specific goals and objectives
Few things are more important to your trading success than having set (i.e. written) goals and objective for what you are aiming to achieve. It is amazing to me how often we hit our targets, meet our objectives, and reach our goals only when we articulate them and write them down.
For any business to be successful it must have measurable objectives that are actually achievable. In trading (obviously) the primary objective is to make money, but it is important to have other objectives that are not purely cash-related. We must always remember that reward and risk go hand-in-hand in trading and that we cannot expect to achieve high returns without planning for high risk (i.e. draw-downs).
Your objectives and goals will be very specific to you, but they must have the following characteristics to be useful:
o Be measurable (in completion and timeframe)
o Be achievable
o Be worthwhile
o Be positive
As an example, here are some of our current objectives (this is only a partial list):
o Develop 2 new positive-expectancy trading systems each year
o Make fewer errors implementing our trading systems each year
o Achieve a return to maximum draw-down ratio of 1.5:1
o Take 2 weeks vacation each year
Note that only one of them is about making money, and that has a measurable objective that is relative to draw-down, not absolute (i.e. make 100% per year). If you know what you are trying to achieve, and when you are trying to achieve it, the whole business will be focused on meeting
your objectives and help guide you to only pay attention to things you really want to achieve with your limited time and resources. This will also give you a way to measure the success and progress of your trading. Generally traders with well-defined objectives will be much more successful than those that do not have pre-defined goals.
2.2 Be consistent and disciplined
In order to realize the full potential of your trading systems it is critical that you take every trading entry, adjust every stop, and close out every trade as and when your system says you should do. This takes extreme confidence in your trading systems, good robust reliable technology, and the mental discipline to stick to your trading plan whatever happens (assuming it is complete).
An underlying assumption about being consistent and disciplined is that you have a pre-defined plan for every situation you may face in your trading, so that you know how you are defining what being consistent is. Your plan needs to include at least the following items:
o All your trading rules for entering, adding to, and exiting positions
o What you will do if your trading computer, internet connection, broker, power, telephone
etc. fails
o What you will do if you are unable to trade
o What you will do if you lose X% of your account
o What you will do if all the markets are closed and you can't exit your positions
Unless you write the answers down to all these issues, you cannot be consistent and disciplined in your approach to trading and if you lose money you will not know whether it is because you didn't follow your plan, because your plan is incomplete, because your systems do not work, or simply because you are going through a losing period.
2.3 Let profits run
This simple rule is the key to being a successful trader. It is three simple words that are very hard to actually implement. When we get a profitable trade our natural fear of losing the unrealized cash kicks in and we truly want to close it out now and take the money. Most trading consists of long periods of small winners and losers followed by a few huge winners that make the difference between overall profitability and simply breaking even or losing due to trading costs(commissions, spread, and slippage).
It is our ability to let the huge winners become just that - huge - that determines how we will perform overall during the year. The key to letting winners run is to have trailing stops that are outside the daily noise of the market so that they are not tight enough to get stopped out during 'normal' trading. This means being prepared to give up a significant portion of a winning trade's open profit and is the thing that makes this so hard to implement. In fact, we should be adding to a winner and widening stops rather than working out how tight our stops can be to capture maximum profit. The trade has already shown you that it intends to be a winner, and the chances are it is a low-risk idea to add to the position now rather than 'strangle it' with stops that are too tight.
It is very important that your position management rules allow for large winning trades, and that the rules are pre-defined and understood before you place the trade. This will allow you (if you have confidence in your method and discipline) to stick to your rules when you do get the big
winner.
2.4 Cut losses short
This is the sister rule to the previous one, and is usually just as difficult to implement (although it
is very easy to define). In the same way that profitability comes from a few large winning trades, capital preservation comes from avoiding the few large losers that the market will toss your way each year. Setting a maximum loss point before you enter the trade so you know before-hand approximately how much you are risking on this particular position is relatively straightforward. You simply need to have a exit price that says to you 'this trade is a loser and I will exit before it gets any bigger'. Due to gaps at the open, or limit moves in futures we can never be 100%
certain that we can get out with our maximum loss, but simply having the rules, and always sticking to it will save us from the nasty trades that just keep on going and going against our position until we have lost more than many winning trades can make back.
If you have a losing position that is at you maximum loss point, just get out. Do not hope that it will turn around. Given that trades are either winners or losers, and this one is shouting 'Loser' at you, the chances that it will turn around and become a large winner is tiny. Why risk any more money on this losing trade, when you could simply close it out (accept the loss) and move on. This will leave you in a much better place financially and mentally, than holding the position and hoping it will go back your way. Even if it did do this, the mental energy and negative feelings from holding the losing position are not worth it. Always stick to your rules and exit a position if it hits your stop point.
2.5 Never add to a losing trade
One of the few trade management rules that we can state we never break is 'Never add to a losing trade'. Trades are split into winners and losers, and if a trade is a loser, the chances of it turning right around and becoming a winner are too small to risk more money on. If indeed it is a winner disguised as a loser, why not wait until it shows it's true colors (and becomes a winner)before you add to it.
If you do this you will notice that nearly always the trade ends up hitting your stop loss and does not look back. Sometimes the trade turns around before it hits your stop and becomes a winner and you can count yourself very fortunate. Sometimes the trade hits your stop loss and then
turns around and becomes a winner and you can count yourself unlucky. Whatever the result, it is never worth adding to a loser, hoping that it will become a winner. The odds of success are just too low to risk more capital in addition to the initial risk.
2.6 Don't take too much risk
One of the most devastating mistakes any trader can make is risking too much of their capital on a single trade. One thing is certain in trading and that is if you lose all your capital you are out of the game. Why risk so much you could be prevented from continuing? There is a saying in
poker than going all-in (risking all your chips) works every time but once. This is true of trading.
If you risk all your account on every trade it only takes one loser to wipe you out (and no trading method is 100% accurate), so you will be out of the game at some point - it is only a question of time.
In general, we only risk 1-3% of the available capital allocated to a system on any individual trade. This is calculated using the size and, the difference between our entry price and our maximum stop price, and the amount of capital allocated to the system. With the win probability
and ratio of size of winning trades to losing trades we are almost certain never to lose all of our trading capital. In fact, the chance of us hitting our maximum drawdown for the year is tiny.
All trades should be of a size that almost seems insignificant. If you are worried about the size of a trade then it is too big and you should reduce the size immediately. Remember that longevity is the key to making money by trading - slowly over a long time with minimal risk, is always preferable to rapidly with too much risk.
2.7 Only trade positive expectancy systems
If you have a positive expectancy trading system, the only factors that determine how much money you will make per year are the number of trades the system generates, how much capital you allocate to the system, and how accurately you implement the trading signals. If you do not know whether your trading system is positive expectancy then why are you trading it? Expectancy is calculated using the profit or loss on each trade (net of trading implementation
costs) divided by the initial risk (using your stop loss) and then taking the average of this number of a series of trades. Systems that have positive expectancy will make money on average and those with negative expectancy will lose money.
Successful traders only trade systems where the odds of success are in their favor (i.e. the system is positive expectancy) so they know that making money is the result of accurately implementing the system and not just pure luck.
2.8 Minimize all trading business costs
Some trading systems have only marginal profitability, and trading implementation costs (commission, spread, and slippage) can be the difference between profitability and making a loss. With the easy availability of modern electronic brokers, and fully-automated trade processing and
execution, it is definitely worthwhile looking for a very low cost way to implement your trading system. High commission, wide spreads, and large amount of slippage can be reduced considerably simply by carefully choosing a broker. This can be the difference between a system
(especially a high frequency one) being useable or not. Paying too much for trade implementation is an avoidable way to lose money.
2.9 Be educated
In order to compete at the highest level in the trading business and be one of the few truly successful participants you must be well-educated about what you are doing. This does not mean having a degree from a well-respected university - the market doesn't care where you were educated.
Being well-educated means that you have thoroughly researched and tested your trading ideas and know why your trading system worked in the past and is continuing to work now. It means understanding all the technology and applications that your system needs to perform accurately.
It means understanding your goal and objectives and how trading will achieve these. It means understanding yourself and how your personality affects your results. It means understanding the markets and instruments you trade.
In order to succeed you really need to become an expert in your own trading business to understand how it all fits together, when it is broken, and how it can be improved. As with all worthwhile endeavors, this takes commitment, hard work, dedication, and more hard work.
2.10 Don't trade scared money
Lastly, no one ever made any money trading when they had to do it to pay the mortgage at the end of the month. Having a requirement to make X dollars per month or you will be financially in trouble is the best way I know to completely mess up all trading discipline, rules, objectives, and
leads quickly to disaster.
Trading is about taking a reasonable risk in order to achieve a good reward. The markets and how and when they give up their profits is not under your control. Do not trade if you need the money to pay bills. Do not trade if your business and personal expenses are not covered by
another income stream or cash reserve. This will only lead to additional unmanageable stress and be very detrimental to your trading performance.
3 Summary
In this article we have covered the rules that we believe should never be broken in trading. If you work on never breaking them, your trading should improve dramatically.
We sincerely hope this information has helped you to improve your trading performance.
Good luck in your trading.
Paul King is owner and head trader of PMKing Trading LLC, a Vermont-based proprietary trading company founded in May 2002. Paul has published a series of eBooks and articles about what he considers to be the important aspects of trading.
There’s a general notion that 90% of forex traders lose money and only 10% are successful. With this low success rate, many try to differentiate themselves. Here are 9 tips that make the difference.
The article was originally published on PivotFarm, a great site I recommend checking out.
What separates the 10% that make money from the 90% that don’t?
1. 10,000 hours.
In his recent book ‘Outliers’ Malcolm Gladwell describes the 10,000-Hour Rule, claiming that the key to success in any cognitively complex field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours. 10,000 hours equates to around 4hrs a day for 10 years. For some reason most people that ‘try their hand’ at trading view it as a get rich quick scheme. That in a very short space of time, they will be able to turn $500 into $1 million! It is precisely this mindset that has resulted in the current economic mess, a bunch of 20-somethings being handed the red phone for financial weapons of mass destruction. The greatest traders understand that trading much like being a doctor, engineer or any other focused and technical endeavor requires time to develop and hone the skill set. Now you wouldn’t see a doctor performing open heart surgery after 3 months on a surgery simulator. Why would trading as a technical undertaking require less time?
Trading success, comes from screen time and experience, you have to put the hours in!
2. Education, education, education.
The old cliché touted by politicians when they can’t think of anything clever to say to their audience. The importance of education to success in trading cannot be placed on a high enough pedestal. You have to learn to earn, the best traders work obsessively to refine their edge further to stay ahead of the curve.
3. Think for yourself.
“NO! NO! NO!”… “Bear Stearns is not in trouble”…”Don’t move your money from Bear! That’s just silly! Don’t be silly!”
A quote from well known stock guru Jim Cramer aired on CNBC days before Bear Stearns lost 90% of its value. Many followed this call and felt the obvious pain as a result. As the old saying goes, “too many cooks spoil the broth” it is very much the same in trading. Successful traders blinker themselves from the opinions of others; they focus on their own analysis of fundamental and technical information.
4. Adapt or Die.
Market conditions change and technology advances, thus the conditions for trading are always evolving, the rise in mechanical trading is testament to that. The very best traders through a process of education and adaptation are constantly staying ahead of the curve and creating ever new and ingenious methods to profit from the markets evolution.
5. Fail to plan, you plan to fail.
The best traders have a well documented plan; they know exactly what they are looking for and follow that plan to the letter. Their preparation for a trade starts long before the market open, it is this meticulous planning and importantly adherence to that plan that helps them avoid the biggest demons for any trader, over trading and revenge trading.
6. “Be like Machine”
As human beings emotions pay a key role in our existence, for a trader emotions can be a source of great pain. Trading psychology and the management of your emotions in a trade play a key role in overall success. Fear and greed can cut your winners short and let your losers run. Dealing with emotions follows on from your plan; the more robust your plan the less likely you are to fall into the emotional mine field.
7. Know your tools
Every trader has a set of tools they use, DOM, Charts, News feeds etc. These tools are a traders bread and butter; they are the most vital part of a traders arsenal, without which it would be impossible to trade. The best traders have mastered their order entry methodology, they know all about the features they need from their charts. This mastery of their tools, allows the trader to get the very best out of the resources they have available to them and ensures perfect execution of their trading ideas.
8. Know Thyself
Behind all the egos and excess, the best traders know their limitations; they focus on what can go wrong in a trade, and expend a lot of energy in limiting and controlling their risk before thinking about profits. They have a heightened sense of self-awareness and focus on incremental self improvement.
9. Profit & Loss
The best traders focus on the trade itself rather than the P&L; they view each trade as a technical exercise and focus on getting the most out of the market in accordance with their plan. They do not think in terms of the grocery payment, the electric bill and the desire to make X amount to cover a mortgage payment. Focusing on the money behind a trade can cloud technical objectivity.
In Conclusion
The greatest traders work hard to get ahead and even harder to stay ahead. Through increased and niche knowledge they constantly adapt with the market and remain profitable in every environment. Drive, tenacity and the will to succeed is the greatest edge of every successful trader.
(Dimana tahap anda?)
Tahap 1 ( Unconscious Incompetence )
Ini merupakan langkah pertama yang anda ambil apabila anda mendengar
pelbagai perkara menarik berkenaan forex dan bahawa pendapatan seorang
trader forex mengalahkan pendapatan seorang pengarah syarikat. Bagi
anda, apalah susah sangat untuk trade forex, ia hanya menentukan harga
naik atau turun. Lagi pun ada disediakan akaun demo untuk latihan
sebelum memulakan trade sebenar. Lalu tanpa berfikir panjang anda pun
mendaftar akaun sebenar dan mendepositkan wang ke akaun tersebut bagi
memulakan trading sebenar setelah anda dapati trade di akaun demo anda
dapat menghasilkan keuntungan yang berlipat-ganda.
Anda mungkin mendapat keuntungan dengan hasil yang menakjubkan di antara 100 ke 200 pip per lot sehari,.
Anda percaya bahawa dengan hanya berdasarkan 1 indicator saja, atau
bahkan hanya dengan gerak-hati anda dapat menghasilkan keuntungan.
Namun itu semua hanyalah nasib saja (beginner luck), pasaran
akan mengalahkan anda. Tidak ada trader yang berjaya hanya dengan
faktor TUAH/LUCK. Kerugian demi kerugian akan mula menghampiri anda,
anda akan cuba bertahan, namun kalau sampai margin habis, siapa yang
dapat bertahan??.
Anda sama sekali tidak menyedari bahawa anda tidak mampu
untuk trade forex, namun anda tetap mengatakan pada diri anda bahawa
yang anda mampu untuk melakukan trading walaupun semua fakta berkata
sebaliknya (Persoalannya: Apakah bulan ini profit?, atau Bulan lepas
profit?, ataupun Tahun ini profit? ).
Anda tetap mengatakan bahawa anda adalah orang yang hebat, orang yang akan mampu mendapatkan kunci kekayaan dari trading. Dan anda tidak menyedari bahwa 90% trader yang gagal juga
mempunyai perasaan seperti itu. Anda tidak mempunyai sistem yang
lengkap, anda dikuasai oleh emosi anda, anda selalu cuba mengimbangi
perasaan anda jika kerugian dengan MARAH pada pasaran, anda selalu
mengambil keuntungan dalam jumlah yang kecil atau membiarkan ia berubah
dari keuntungan jadi kerugian karena anda dikuasai oleh sifat TAMAK, adakala anda tidak pernah trading karena anda TAKUT. Anda membiarkan diri anda dikuasai oleh emosi sehingga margin equity anda menderita.
90% orang yang trade forex hanya sampai pada tahap ini, mereka biasanya kehabisan modal, berhenti trade dan menganggap ini semua hanya mimpi buruk belaka.
Sebahagian lagi tetap mencari modal dari rakan-rakan/investor dan trade
seperti orang gila. dalam sebulan atau dua bulan margin habis lalu
mereka mencari mangsa lagi. Ini akan mewujudkan masalah moral yang
teruk.
Mereka masih mengaku sebagai trader namun sebenarnya mereka
executor. dan biasanya yang moralnya teruk ini dengan senang hati akan
mengambil wang dari rakan-rakan dengan menabur pelbagai janji-jani
(pulangan lumayan) dan kononnya akan trade sebagai manage fund untuk
mereka. Sebahagiannya lagi akan tetap terus seperti biasa dan mengaku
trader tetapi tidak pernah trading, mereka biasanya menyalahkan diri
mereka sendiri.
Hanya
waktu yang menentukan segalanya, sampai bila mereka dapat bertahan di
tahap ini dan biasanya waktu selalunya menang. Proses ini selalunya
dalam lingkungan waktu SEMINGGU hingga SEBULAN
90% traders akan terus gagal dan kekal ditahap ini, hanya 10% dari mereka yang sedar ini akan pindah ke
Tahap 2.
Tahap 2 ( Conscious Incompetence )
Di tahap ini anda sedar bahawa anda tidak mampu untuk trading, anda tidak memiliki kemampuan untuk trading yang menghasilkan keuntungan secara konsisten.
Dan anda tahu penyelesaiannya, Anda sedar bahawa selama di Tahap 1
fikiran anda dikaburkan oleh emosi anda sehingga anda tidak dapat
berfikir secara bernas.
Di tahap ini anda akan mencari ‘Holy Grail’
( sistem yang sempurna/keramat, sistem yang memberikan keuntungan 100%
, sistem yang tidak ada kerugian), anda mulai membeli sistem yang ada
di internet, anda membaca semua website yang ada tentang trading mulai
dari Malaysia hingga ke USA, anda baca semua ebook yang ada, anda
praktikkan semua sistem yang anda perolehi, anda dahagakan ilmu seperti
seorang pengembara di padang pasir yang dahagakan air minuman.
Pada tahap ini anda akan membaca semua perincian tentang sistem
automasi trading/indicator, anda akan test semua indicator yang ada di
Metatrader, bahkan anda mungkin akan membuat indikator sendiri (
biasanya gabungan 2 atau 3 indicator), anda akan bermain-main dengan
Moving Everage, Fibonnacci lines, Pivot Point, Camarilla Pivot, DeMark,
Fractal, MACD, DMI. ADX, Bollinger Bands, dan ratusan indicator yang
lain.
Anda tahu bahawa pasaran terlalu rumit untuk dijangka hanya dengan 1
indicator saja. Anda akan mengabungkan kombinasi ideal dari setiap
indicator. Anda tahu keunggulan indicator tersebut dan juga
kelemahannya. Anda akan mencuba menanda TOP dan BOTTOM di pasaran dan
meneka titik perubahan pergerakan pasaran dengan indicator tersebut.
Namum anda dapati yang anda terus gagal walaupun anda rasa yang anda
telah melakukan yang terbaik.
Anda kini akan cuba bergabung dengan chat room trader dan menanyakan
pelbagai pertanyaan di forum-forum kerana bagi anda kalau anda tidak
bertanya sekarang maka selamanya anda tidak akan tahu. Anda ingin
mengetahui bagaimana trader lain membuat keuntungan walahal anda
tidak.. Ketika ini anda akan memikirkan mereka yang mengatakan
mendapatkan keuntungan ratusan pip sehari adalah penipu – anda rasa
anda tahu semuanya dan telah cuba melakukan apa yang mereka lakukan.
Anda akan jadi seperti seorang remaja – trader yang lebih berpengalaman
akan menasihati anda supaya mencari guru yang betul dalam menuntut ilmu
tetapi anda degil dan memikirkan yang anda tahu apa yang terbaik – anda
meneruskan pembelajaran anda melalui bahan2 diinternet dan overtrade
akaun anda walaupun semua orang kata anda gila (anda sesat dalam
kebijaksanaan anda – overload information). Kini anda akan
mempertimbangkan melanggan isyarat berbayar melalui perkhidmatan SMS
dan sebagainya – serta termakan janji-janji manis penyedia khidmat
pembelajaran forex yang menjanjikan pelbagai teknik mudah dan cepat
untuk berjaya dalam trading tanpa memikirkan jika benarlah ia semudah
yang dinyatakan, sudah semestinya ramai yang menjadi jutawan.
Pada akhirnya anda akan mendapatkan 5 hingga 10 sistem yang lengkap dan
mencuba mencari sistem mana yang paling sesuai dengan
keperibadian/stail anda. Namum di tahap ini anda akan sentiasa
kebinggungan kerana mendengar ramai trader yang mendapat keuntungan
dari hari ke hari dan anda pula terus kerugian.
Ramai trader yang berada ditahap ini lenyap dalam masa sebulan yang
pertama dan jika ada yang mampu bertahan untuk mengharunginya berakhir
sekitar 3 bulan.
Dari 10% trader yang ada di tahap ini, hanya sekitar 7% yang berhasil pindah ke Tahap 3.
Tahap 3 (The EUREKA Moment)
Pada akhir Tahap 2, anda akhirnya menyedari pokok permasalahan bukan terletak di sistem. An
da menyedari bahwa anda mampu mendapat keuntungan bahkan jika hanya
menggunakan sistem yang mudah seperti Trendline sekali pun tanpa ada
indicator lain, jika anda mampu melakukan sedikit kajian melalui
pemerhatian yang menyeluruh dan mempelajari pengurusan trading yang
baik.
Anda mulai membaca buku tentang psikologi trading, dan
mengidentifikasikannya pada diri anda dengan karakter yang dijelaskan
dalam buku itu. Akhirnya membawa anda ke Tahap 3 iaitu Tahap Pencerahan.
Proses pencerahan ini membuat otak anda menyedari satu hal yang
penting, di dunia ini tidak ada seorang pun yang mampu meneka secara
tepat apa yang akan terjadi pada pasaran 30 detik berikutnya. Apa yang
anda perlu hanyalah satu sistem trading yang sesuai dengan stail trade
anda serta bimbingan seseorang berkenaan pengurusan trading yang
sepatutnya sehingga anda dapat cara bertrading yang betul.
Anda mulai menguasai satu sistem trading dan memodifikasinya sehingga
sesuai dengan karakter anda, dan mampu memberikan lebih banyak profit
dibandingkan sistem yang asli.
Anda mulai trading jika anda tahu kemungkinan untuk untung lebih besar
daripada untuk rugi, anda hanya trading jika ada signal dari sistem
anda, anda selalu menggunakan stoploss, karena anda tahu stoploss
adalah risiko bisnes yang ada dalam dunia trading.
Ketika stoploss anda kena, anda tidak emosi kerana anda tahu tak
seorang pun mampu menjangkakannya, dan itu bukan kesalahan anda.
Trading berikutnya akan meningkat peluang keuntungan anda kerana anda
tahu sistem anda itu sistem yang menguntungkan secara keseluruhannya.
Anda secara tidak langsung menyedari bahawa dalam dunia trading hanya
ada satu hal yang penting iaitu konsistensi pada sistem, psikologi
trading dan pengurusan wang yang betul. Dan kedisiplinan anda untuk
dalam melakukan trading mengurangkan risiko kerugian anda.
Anda
mempelajari tentang perlunya ada guru/teman yang dapat memberikan anda
bimbingan yang baik dan sokongan berterusan serta hal-hal lainnya. Ia
mengingatkan anda suatu ketika yang lalu di mana anda diberi nasihat
tersebut dari trader yang berpengalaman dan anda memilih untuk
mengendahkannya ketika itu. Kini anda tahu kenapa anda hanya perlukan
seorang guru yang baik yang dapat memberikan didikan dan bimbingan yang
diperlukan untuk berjaya dalam trading dan bukannya seorang super
trader yang menjaja kehebatan sistem/strategi beliau.
Trader
akan mengharungi tahap ini sekitar 6 bulan sebelum akhirnya menerima
hakikat sebenar bahawa tidak siapa yang mampu meramalkan pergerakan
pasaran.
Dari 7% trader yang ada di tahap ini, hanya sekitar 5% yang berhasil maju ke tahap berikutnya.
Tahap 4 ( Conscious Competence )
Sekarang anda hanya trading jika dan hanya jika sistem anda memberi
signal. Anda menggunakan stop loss atau cut loss apabila menyedari
terdapat signal yang bertentangan kerana anda tahu sistem anda akan
lebih banyak memberikan keuntungan daripada kerugian, dan cut loss yang
anda lakukan adalah resiko bisnis yaitu max 2% dari account anda.
Di tahap ini anda memulai pandai memperingkatkan target keuntungan
trade anda dan setelah anda mampu melakukannya secara konsisten selama
beberapa minggu, anda meningkatkan target tersebut ke semaksimum yang
boleh. Dan hal itu pada akhirnya mampu anda lakukan.
Anda memang masih harus kerja keras untuk mendapatkannya, memperbaiki
sistem anda (dengan menambah 1 atau 2 indicator yang sesuai bagi
menyokong system anda), menguasai emosi anda, dan melaksanakan
pengurusan wang yang anda pelajari dan pegang. Anda mulai mendapat
pengalaman bertrading sebenar.
Tahap ini biasanya berjalan sekitar setahun atau lebih bergantung kepada kemampuan penerimaan seseorang trader itu.
Dari 5% trader hanya sekitar 3% yang sanggup maju ke tahap berikutnya.
Tahap 5 ( Unconscious Competence )
Nah! Sekarang anda telah sampai di Tahap 5, ini adalah tahap yang
paling diharapkan oleh seluruh trader di dunia ini, di tahap ini anda
mampu trading secara rilek, anda telah menguasai semuanya, anda mampu
berdansa mengikut rentak pasaran, kemanapun arah market berjalan, anda
telah berada di posisi yang benar, jadi anda tinggal melihat keuntungan
anda bergerak dari 2 digit ke 3 digit.
Inilah tahap puncak bagi seorang trader, inilah tahap Utopia/Optim,
anda telah menguasai emosi anda dan kini anda trading dengan account
yang terus membesar setiap hari dari keuntungan kumulatif yang anda
peroleh.
Anda akan jadi bintang di bidang trading, dan orang sekeliling anda
akan mendengarkan apa yang anda katakan, anda faham dengan pertanyaan
mereka, kerana anda pernah berada diposisi mereka suatu masa dahulu.
Anda akan memberikan saranan bagi mereka, namun anda tahu bahwa
kebanyakan dari mereka tidak akan mendengarkannya karena mereka masih
trader Tahap 1.
Anda tidak akan mempunyai masalah kewangan lagi, anda mampu membeli
semua benda yang tersedia untuk dijual, anda mampu membeli sebuah pulau
dan trading disana asalkan ada jaringan internet, anda mampu pindah ke
hotel 5 bintang, dan menjadi penghuni tetap disana.
Anda mempunyai penghasilan seperti seorang superstar, anda mampu
membuat buku sendiri, anda mampu trading dengan margin yang tanpa
batas, dan account anda akan berlipat-ganda dari account awal.
Jangka masa untuk sampai ke tahap ini adakalanya bertahun-tahun lamanya. Namum sebenarnya bergantung kepada trader itu sendiri.
Hanya 3% trader yang mampu mencapai tahap ini.
Sekarang anda mampu dengan bangga berkata:
” SAYA SEORANG TRADER “
Relative Strength Index Re-defined
by Meet Joe Black
Cut your losses and let your profits run?
Trade what you see, not what you think?
Dua falsafah yang biasa kita dengar dari professional trader. Tetapi bagaimana kita nak mengaplikasikan “advice” tersebut dimana perlaksanaan nya tak semudah itu.
Saya ingin berkongsi satu system yang simple tetapi berkesan dan boleh memberi profit yang konsisten. Setakat ini, indicator yang saya gunakan cuma RSI saja. Sebelum itu saya nak kupas sedikit tentang kegunaan RSI. Bagi pendapat peribadi saya, RSI sesuai digunakan untuk trading momentum dan breakout. Sekiranya anda guna Period 14 dan 21, level pada 40-50 menunjukkan keadaan market sideway dan range-bound. Level 70 dan 30 menunjukkan market dalam keadaan strongly trending up dan trending down. Anda mungkin ada pendapat yang berbeza dan saya hormati nya.
Ramai trader yang gunakan teknik biasa untuk trade berpandukan RSI iaitu trade overbought dan oversold – buy pada RSI 30 dan sell pada RSI 70. Secara asasnya kita diajar macam tu. Tapi pendapat saya menyatakan teknik overbought/oversold itu bukan salah tetapi kurang tepat. RSI adalah Relative Strength Index sama fungsi nya dengan currency strength index/meter. Currency strength index menunjukkan strength/weakness satu currency sahaja manakala RSI menunjukkan kekuatan dan kelemahan dua currency yang digabungkan sebagai satu pair. Contohnya, bila EURUSD pada level RSI 70, maksudnya momentum uptrend adalah kuat dan EURUSD dalam keadaan strong. Jadi, kenapa mesti sell pada level 70? Melainkan market dalam keadaan range-bound pada semua masa.
Berbalik kepada system yang saya nak kongsikan dengan mengunakan RSI 14.
System ini sangat mudah dan senang diaplikasikan.
Apabila chart EURUSD buka new candle, pada TF 1H ke atas, entry dan exit berdasarkan keadaan di bawah:
I. Bila level RSI 14 lebih daripada 60 – LONG (buy)
Stop* apabila RSI 14 kurang daripada 50
II. Bila level RSI 14 kurang daripada 40 – SHORT (sell)
Stop* apabila RSI 14 lebih daripada 50
*Stop maksudnya kita tutup position sama ada loss atau profit.
Untuk lebih pemahaman, sila rujuk visual chart di bawah. Saya gunakan chart Daily sebagai contoh untuk kita melihat dari perspektif yang lebih besar.
Rules untuk trading system ini:
1. Gunakan Timeframe 1H ke atas, RSI 14 dan Candlestick chart. EURUSD adalah pair paling sesuai untuk teknik ini kerana ia trending smoothly.
2. Entry dan exit selepas new candle dibuka. Tidak digalakkan enter trade atau exit trade semasa candle masih belum complete (masih running). Tunggu sehingga candle baru dibuka.
3. Tiada pending order, pending TP dan pending SL.
4. Exit (stop loss dan take profit) berdasarkan rules I dan II. Sama ada position anda negative atau positif, rules kena follow.
5. Teknik ini boleh digunakan bila-bila masa tetapi tidak digalakkan trade semasa news atau spike yang besar. Kemungkinan berlaku false momentum dan breakout signal.
System ini telah ditest sendiri oleh saya. Saya percaya system ini akan menguntungkan untuk jangka masa panjang, bukan menjadi kaya secara overnight atau sebulan dua. Result dari bulan Januari 2010 – August 2010 seperti di bawah. Result itu adalah net profit/loss setelah ditolak-tambah semua keuntungan dan kerugian pada pair EURUSD saja:
January - +144 pips
February - +248 pips
March - +349 pips
April - +80 pips
May - +371 pips
June - +112 pips
July - +293 pips
August - +73 pips
Setakat ini, no losing months. Untuk bulan ini (September 2010) masih dalam net profit.
Biggest profit on single trade dan consecutive profits = 511 pips dan 5 consecutive profits
Biggest drawdown on single trade dan consecutive losses = 106 pips dan 5 consecutive losses.
Win/Loss ratio adalah lebih kurang 1:1 dan Profit/Loss ratio adalah hampir 3:1.
Ratio ini adalah kunci kepada keberkesanan system ini.
Nota ringkas:
1. Saya gunakan TF 1H dan saya cadangkan TF 1H, 4H dan Daily. Pair adalah EURUSD.
Makin besar TF, makin besar TP dan SL anda. Anda boleh pilih timeframe berdasarkan kesesuaian anda sendiri.
2. Bagi trader yang target beratus pips sehari dan beribu pips sebulan, maka system ini tidak sesuai untuk anda kerana system ini direka untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang munasabah dan konsisten dalam jangka masa panjang.
3. System ini sesuai untuk pair yang trending smoothly seperti EURUSD dan tidak sesuai untuk pair yang ranging dan banyak spike/whipsaw.
4. Saya mengalu-alukan penambah-baikan tetapi tiada averaging, scaling down, scaling up dan martingale perlu dibincangkan sehingga ada perubahan diberitahu. Penambah-baikan adalah pada RSI period, RSI level, trailing SL, filter kepada false signal dan mana-mana indicator atau teknik yang boleh meminimumkan drawdown dan eliminasi false signal.
5. Saya juga mengalu-alukan coder MQL untuk mencipta EA berdasarkan panduan entry-exit dan rules yang saya tetapkan di atas.
System requirements and specifications as follow:
1. Relative Strength Index (Period 14 days)
2. Timeframe 1H and longer
3. Candlestick on EURUSD
4. 1000 usd Deposit with 1.00 lot equal to 1.00 usd. You may adjust your deposit and lot trade accordingly.
5. Discipline, patience and determination.
Untuk menjadi seorang professional forex traders kita harus mengetahui tentang 2 perkara penting didlm forex iaitu Fundamental Analysis (FA) dan Technical Analysis (TA)...adalah tdk lengkap sekiranye kita hanya mengetahui TA shj...sy memerhatikan ramai forex traders yg hanya belajar & mengetahui technical analysis dan kurang mahir mengenai fundamental analysis....ini adalah KESILAPAN bg seorang trader.
Kenapa sy mengatakan FA adalah amat penting?
ini kerana kita akan lebih mengetahui & mendalami forex sekiranya kita mengetahui FA...FA merangkumi keadaan matawang sesebuah negara, keadaan ekonomi,keadaan politik, saham, stock, komoditi sesebuah negara....Banyak yg perlu kita ketahui mengenai FA ini...sy pun sekarang tgh mendalami bidang FA ini...
Technical Analysis juga membantu kita dlm melihat, menilai dan menjangka kearah manakah market akan pergi samada keatas (BUY) atau kebawah (SELL)....banyak indicator dan teknik yg ada dlm forex tetapi bagi sy cukup lah hanya beberapa teknik ini shj dan pastinye dgn penguasaan pada teknik2 ini akan menjadikan kita seorang pro traders...
1. CANDLESTICK
2. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
3. TREND LINES
4. FIBO
5. ELIOT WAVE
extra: 6. GANN
Gabungan diantara FA & TA akan menjadikan anda seorang forex pro traders...pelajarilah & fahamilah teknik2 tersebut....tentunya anda akan melihat hasilnya setelah anda menguasai teknik2 tersebut...
